FOMC is coming ~ again… so here is a great opportunity!
I’ve always wondered: can we actually trade these FOMC days in a systematic way?
So I ran an experiment. I pulled real SPY options data from every FOMC meeting since 2022, and I tested 3 very different strategies. Each one had clear rules, risk limits, and profit targets.
Here’s what I set up:
Strategy 1: The Long Straddle
Enter 2 days before the FOMC meeting
Buy 1 call and 1 put, both at-the-money
Expiration: weekly options (2–5 DTE)
Profit Target: +100% of premium
Stop Loss: –50% of premium
The hypothesis: when the Fed speaks, volatility should cause a big enough move in either direction to pay off.
Strategy 2: The Reverse Iron Condor
Enter 2 days before FOMC
Buy 1 call and 1 put ~5% out-of-the-money
Sell 1 further call and 1 further put to reduce cost
Expiration: weekly options (2–5 DTE)
Profit Target: +100% of debit paid
Stop Loss: –50% of debit paid
The idea: Fed moves are explosive, but buying both wings is expensive. Selling further OTM options should reduce the cost and make the bet more affordable.
Strategy 3: The Iron Butterfly
Enter 2 days before FOMC
Sell 1 at-the-money call + 1 at-the-money put
Buy 1 call and 1 put ~5% away for protection
Collect a net credit upfront (~$2,000+)
Profit Target: 75% of max profit
Stop Loss: 25% of net credit
The twist: instead of betting on big moves, this strategy bets that the Fed might not move markets as much as expected.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. I tested all 27 FOMC meetings from 2022 through mid-2025. One of these strategies completely failed, another had mixed results, and the last one… well, let’s just say it shocked me with a 96.2% win rate after optimization.
But I won’t spoil it here.
👉 Watch the full backtest breakdown, trade logs, and equity curves here:
96.2% Win Rate FOMC Options Trading Strategy
Trust me, you’ll want to see which setup cracked the code.
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Data is King
Sizing is everything
Sean Seah,
Portfolio Manager, Swiss-Asia Financial Services, Alpha Quant Index
