Hey Quant X Tribe,
By now, everyone can feel it.
This is no longer a “quiet” market.
Volatility is elevated.
Price is moving.
Headlines are everywhere.
So the natural conclusion is:
“The move already happened.”
But that’s where most traders get it wrong.
The First Move Is Not The Full Move
Yes — the market has already sold off.
Yes — volatility has expanded.
But markets don’t move in a single step.
They move in phases.
What you’re seeing now is not the end of the move.
It’s the transition into an unstable regime.
From Compression → Expansion → Instability
Previously, we talked about the Variance Repricing Framework.
How markets move from:
Compression (tight ranges)
Into Expansion (volatility increases)
What most people don’t understand is what comes next.
After expansion begins, the market doesn’t immediately stabilise.
It enters a phase of:
Instability.
Why This Phase Is Dangerous
In this environment:
Volatility is already high
Price moves become more aggressive
Direction becomes less predictable
And most importantly:
Positioning starts to amplify the move.
We are now in a negative gamma environment.
That means:
Dealers are no longer stabilising price
They are reacting to price
When price drops → more selling is triggered
When price spikes → more buying is triggered
This creates acceleration, not balance.
The Mistake Most Traders Are Making Right Now
Retail traders see high volatility and think:
“Okay, the risk is already priced in.”
So what do they do?
They start fading moves
They increase size
They assume things will “slow down”
This works… until it doesn’t.
Because instability phases don’t reward comfort.
They punish it.
High Volatility Does Not Mean Risk Is Gone
This is important.
A VIX at 25–30 doesn’t mean the market is safe.
It just means:
The market has started to reprice risk.
Not finished.
If realised volatility continues to exceed expectations,
the market will need to reprice again.
And that’s when you get:
Secondary moves
Sharp continuation
Or violent reversals
What You Should Be Watching Now
Instead of asking:
“Has the market already moved?”
Ask:
“Is the market stabilising — or still unstable?”
Look for:
Large intraday swings
Breakouts that accelerate instead of fade
Sudden reversals without clear structure
These are signs you are still inside the instability phase.
Not after it.
If You’re Unsure How To Navigate This Phase
This is exactly where most traders struggle.
Not because they lack effort —
but because they’re operating without a process.
Most traders skip the Backtest step.
They see a setup → they trade it →
and only find out if it works after losing money.
That’s the real problem.
Not the market.
If you want to understand how we approach markets like this from a structured, data-driven perspective:
Inside, we break down:
What quant trading actually is (and why most traders are unknowingly trading without an edge)
The I.B.O.T framework — Ideate → Backtest → Optimise → Trade
How to test your ideas before risking capital — so you’re not reacting, but executing
See you there!
To your growth,
Quant X Team
Where Data Becomes Alpha
Editor: Dareen Tan
Disclaimer:
The views shared here are for educational purposes only and reflect our team’s opinions. They should not be taken as financial, investment, or legal advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any financial decisions.
